PREDICTING TURNING POINTS IN LIFECYCLE DEMAND
project name

PREDICTING TURNING POINTS IN LIFECYCLE DEMAND

description

RESULT – Multivariate Demand Forecasting Helps Anticipate Turning Points in Lifecycle Demand

PREDICTING TURNING POINTS IN LIFECYCLE DEMAND

Services
Capital Equipment Maintenance
CONTEXT

$ Multi Billion
Capital equipment maintenance services business with presence in
150+
Countries globally

DIVERSE PRODUCT  LIFECYCLES
>250,000 COMPONENTS
SKUs


CHALLENGES
Client had a sophisticated planning system which relied exclusively on historical demand data and univariate time series modeling to generate forecasts.
System was late in catching declines in demand that resulted in overstocking & eventual expensive inventory write-offs.

TOOLS & METHODS
An installed base growth and decay model was created based on product shipments and known product life-span
A multivariate time-series model was built to anticipate turning points in parts demand based on a decay in installed base providing the intelligence to prevent expensive inventory and write-offs.

RESULT – Multivariate Demand Forecasting Helps Anticipate Turning Points In Lifecycle Demand

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